Buffalo is No. 1 ahead of No. 2 Kansas City. Cincinnati, the reigning AFC champion, is No. 3. This is the teams’ biggest matchup since the 1988 AFC championship game.
Josh Allen was an MVP front-runner early but has faded. Joe Burrow has crept into the MVP conversation late but is unlikely to jump Patrick Mahomes.Allen vs. Burrow remains a marquee QB matchup with two tricky defenses involved.
Here’s everything to know about betting on Bills vs. Bengals in Week 17, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for “Monday Night Football.”
Bills vs. Bengals odds for Monday Night Football
- Spread: Bills by 1
- Over/under: 49.5
- Moneyline: Bills -115, Bengals -105
Bills vs. Bengals all-time series
The teams have met 32 times. The Bills lead 17-15. The Bengals have won four of the past six matchups. The Bills won the 2019 meeting, 21-17. This is the first time Burrow has played Buffalo after being drafted first overall in 2020.
Three trends to know
—58 percent of spread bettors are siding with the Bengals as slight night home underdogs to cover, which means also winning outright.
—66 percent of total bettors think the relative high number is still too low while being at fewer than 50 points.
—The Bills 7-7 against the spread this season with only five games going over. The Bengals are 12-3 ATS also with only five games going over.
Three things to watch
The Bills’ running game vs. the Bengals’ run defense
The Bills average 5.3 rushing yards per attempt, No. 1 in the NFL. Part of that is Josh Allen’s chunk running on top of revving up Devin Singletary and rookie James Cook of late. The Bengals No. 7 run defense must contain the Bills on the ground to help their offense.
The Bengals’ wide receivers vs. the Bills’ secondary
Between Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Trenton Irwin, the Bengals are now four deep with dangerous downfield targets for Burrow. The Bills’ secondary has had a few holes this season overall. Now it also must deal with a healthy veteran tight end, Hayden Hurst.
Allen and Burrow vs themselves
Both quarterbacks are naturally confident young guns with their arms and legs in key situations. But they also can force the ball to looking for a play, especially in the red zone. Neither QB can afford such a mistake with points and scoring opportunities all being at a premium.
Stat that matters
66.7 percent. That’s the touchdown conversion rate of the Bengals in the end zone, good for No. 5 in the NFL. The Bills have the top red zone defense at 44.4 percent opposition TD scoring. Burrow has spread the ball around well inside the 20 and the Bengals also have become a multi-dimensional rushing attack.
Bills vs. Bengals prediction
Burrow can be trusted more at home with his recent play vs. Allen, who has been dependent a lot on his running. He has more reliable weapons at the moment and that will make the difference in a pass-happy affair.
Bengals 27, Bills 24