Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier 3 odds, prediction, trends, prop bets for UFC 264

Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier 3 odds, prediction, trends, prop bets for UFC 264

Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor will complete their trilogy at UFC 264 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on July 10.

The two will square off in a rubber match after McGregor won the first fight by knockout in 2014 with Poirier returning the favor earlier this year. 

Not only is the fight for bragging rights, but it will have heavy implications on the lightweight division where Charles Oliveira currently reigns as the king of the division. 

With so much on the line, there are plenty of opportunities for potential bettors to find value and Sporting News offers their insight on how to bet this weekend. 

All odds courtesy of FanDuel

UFC 264 odds for Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 3

  • Dustin Poirier: -115
  • Conor McGregor: -104
  • Draw: +5000

The third fight between Poirier and McGregor finds the two fighters nearly even according to FanDuel. Poirier is a very slight favorite at -115, which means you’d have to bet $115 in order to see a $100 profit. McGregor is -104 so a $104 bet will need to be made in order to earn a $100 profit if McGregor comes out victorious. 

Poirier vs. McGregor 3 prop bets

  • Poirier by (T)KO: +190
  • Poirier by Submission: +750
  • Poirier by Decision: +600
  • McGregor by (T)KO: +130
  • McGregor by Submission: +2600
  • McGregor by Decision: +850

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Poirier vs. McGregor 3 prediction

With their series tied at one fight apiece, it’s understandable that oddsmakers would have the two fighters would be in a dead heat. But there’s a very important statistic to consider heading into the rubber match. There have been 13 trilogies that have been fought exclusively in the UFC. Entering the third fight, the fighter who wins the second fight also wins the third 70% of the time. That can be chalked up to a few things but most important is that the fighter who won the second fight figured something out about his/her opponent while the loser of the second fight still has that most recent loss in the back of their mind. McGregor could surely defy those odds against Poirier but if you are a betting man, there’s really no value in betting on either straight up. Instead, a prop bet will yield the most bang for your buck. 

McGregor truly has one path to victory and that’s a knockout. Of his 22 career wins, 19 have come by way of knockout with only two decisions and one submission. One of those decisions was against a larger man in Nate Diaz at welterweight while the other was when he beat Max Holloway with a torn ACL. That submission came nearly a decade ago before he was in the UFC. It’s knockout or bust and at +130 it’s the only logical play. 

However, Poirier has shown tremendous growth as a fighter and has slid comfortably into the lightweight division with high profile wins over the likes of Max Holloway, Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez. It’s also worth noting that McGregor is only 3-3 outside of the featherweight division and all three of his losses have come inside of the distance. If you add in the fact that the fighter who won the second fight also wins the third when it comes to trilogies, it all makes sense to place a wager on Poirier. However, betting on Poirier straight-up offers no value. Instead, a stoppage is the most likely route. 

McGregor’s three UFC losses have all come by way of stoppage. He was knocked out by Poirier and submitted by both Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov. Poirier is more than capable of knocking McGregor out again but he’s also fully capable of securing a submission despite not having a true submission victory in nine years (his submission victory over Pettis was due to a broken rib). Playing it safe with Poirier securing a TKO at +190 is the best bet but putting a small wager on a submission victory could reap a hefty return at +750. 

Sporting News Prediction: Poirier by (T)KO (+190)