Dolphins playoff picture: MIami's updated AFC wild-card chances to make NFL playoffs

Dolphins playoff picture: MIami's updated AFC wild-card chances to make NFL playoffs

The Dolphins dropped their fourth consecutive game, losing at home to Green Bay on Sunday. That puts them at 8-7 going into their Week 17 road game at New England with three games left to play in the 2022 NFL regular season.

Miami is fading at the wrong time, but it still is in good shape to break through for the playoffs in the first season under rookie coach Mike McDaniel. Here’s breaking down the Dolphins’ current playoff chances, which is exclusive to an AFC wild-card berth.

MORE: Updated NFL standings, playoff picture for Week 16

Dolphins playoff picture

The Dolphins go into Week 17 still holding down the No. 7 seed and final AFC wild-card with their 8-7 record.

They are two games behind the No. 5 Ravens (10-5), who beat the Falcons on Saturday, and a half-game behind the No. 6 Chargers (8-6), who play the Colts on Monday.

The Dolphins are only one game ahead of the No. 8 Patriots, No. 9 Jets and No. 10 Titans, who all lost in Week 16 to fall to 7-8. The Steelers moved up to No. 11 by also getting to 7-8 with their comeback win over the Raiders.

What playoff tiebreakers are in the Dolphins’ favor?

The Dolphins beat the team two games ahead of them, the No. 5 seed Ravens, in Week 2. They also beat the No. 8 Patriots at home in Week 1 ahead of the rematch in Week 17.

The Dolphins lost to the No. 6 Chargers in Week 14. They also lost their first meeting with the Jets in New York in Week 5; that rematch is set for Week 18 in Miami. 

Miami does have the edge over Tennessee, which it doesn’t play, with a superior conference record (6-4 vs. 5-6). The Dolphins also beat the Steelers head-to-head in Week 7.

MORE: Bengals control AFC North race race after Ravens’ loss to Browns

Dolphins’ remaining schedule

The Dolphins face the Patriots in New England and the Jets in Miami to close the season with back-to-back AFC East games,

Although the Packers game had limited AFC implications, it was key for the Dolphins to end their skid to rebuild their confidence for a final division grind. Now they must dig deep to survive in playoff position.

Can the Dolphins still make the playoffs?

The Dolphins have a solid chance to make the playoffs because no team behind them other than the Jaguars, now the AFC South leaders, have been able to take advantage of their slide, plus the Ravens and Chargers already passed them.

They’re looking at around a 70 percent chance to make the playoffs even with a loss to the Packers, as long they can still take care of business vs. the reeling Patriots and Jets.