Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine upended Chinese President Xi Jinping’s timetable to invade Taiwan, according to documents purportedly written by a Russian intelligence analyst in one of Moscow’s security agencies.
“Xi Jinping was at least considering taking over Taiwan in the fall – he needs his own little victory to get re-elected for a third term – there the struggle within the elite is colossal,” an agent in Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor agency to the KGB, allegedly wrote on March 9. China will hold its 20th Communist Party Congress this fall, and Xi has said it will be a “major event.” Analysts have predicted that Xi will either be re-elected as the general secretary of the Communist Party or be elected to the chairmanship of the party, a position that has not existed since 1982.
“Now, after the Ukrainian events, this window of opportunity has been closed to him, which gives the United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with its competitors on favorable terms,” the FSB agent added. “It was in this case that we launched a trap mechanism for China with our actions.”
The agent added that the FSB is “seriously considering” claiming that “the battle on Ukrainian territory is a US war against China, in which the Americans simply set us up and used us.”“The global clash between the US and China was inevitable,” the agent wrote. “After the war with Ukraine (although I may avoid using the term ‘operation’ here), the cost of resources in the world, especially energy ones, has gone up. The main victim of such actions becomes China, to which (I can confirm) were given guarantees that everything will end quickly. Therefore, China behaved tolerant in the past. But that was before that.”
“China may well give us a tough ultimatum to end the war to stabilize oil prices,” the agent predicted. “If this happens, I don’t want to predict anything – it’s just on the horizon of disaster events.”
Vladimir Osechkin, founder of the Gulagu.net human rights group, published the report on his Facebook page last week. He claimed that the same FSB agent wrote this document and the March 5 report that claimed a Russian victory in Ukraine had become a near impossibility.
Christo Grozev, who works for the Netherlands-based investigative journalism group Bellingcat, tweeted that he showed the March 5 letter to two FSB contacts, one current and one former employee. They had no doubt that the author was a colleague, he said.
As Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, nine Chinese aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense zone, prompting a broadcast warning from the island nation.
China may emerge as the primary beneficiary of the Russia-Ukraine war, Steve Gray, a New Jersey congressional candidate and former FBI special agent who worked on China and North Korea, told Fox News Digital earlier this month. Gray warned that China has “been given a case study of what the world’s response would look like if they were to invade Taiwan.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin considers Ukraine a part of historic Russia, and Xi considers Taiwan a part of China. Yet, as the FSB agent suggested, this very similarity may provide reasons for China to rethink a potential invasion of Taiwan. The Ukrainian people’s resolve against Russia has reportedly stalled the Kremlin’s timeline for the war, and peace talks are ongoing.
In October, Biden said the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China attacks. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson responded by saying, “No one should underestimate the strong resolve, determination and capability of the Chinese people to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. China has no room for compromise.”