We saw yet another flip of the switch in Game 4 over the weekend, with Steph Curry and the Warriors seizing command from Boston in crunch time to win back home-court advantage. Now Golden State looks to take a crucial 3-2 lead at home, putting all the pressure on the Celtics.
The Celtics have responded to adversity well all postseason, winning on the road and after every loss, but these Warriors are scrappy, they have experience, and they have the best shooter of all time. Should we expect another massive upset by Team Green? Will this Golden State squad – with three championships since 2015 – hold onto home-court advantage after losing it at the start of the series and regaining it on Friday?Let’s dive into our same-game parlay of the day and throw in some player and team props that correlate well with each leg.
Same-Game Parlay and props are all from FanDuel.
Warriors vs. Celtics: Best same-game parlay prop bets for Game 5
- Golden State Warriors Moneyline -172
- Andrew Wiggins OVER 7.5 Rebounds (+114)
- Alternate Points: Draymond Green UNDER 8.5 Points (-186)
- Player Assists: Jayson Tatum OVER 6.5 Assists (+122)
Total Odds (4 Legs): +801 | Bet: $100 | To Win: $802
Golden State Warriors Moneyline -172Throughout NBA history, the Finals team with the hottest star typically wins. Combine the hottest star with crucial coaching decisions and a squad working harder and smarter than its opponent? It might as well be a lock. We’ll discuss all these factors being on Golden State’s side to this point in the series, especially in Game 4, but for right now let’s talk about Steph.
Curry has been downright bananas this NBA Finals. We’re talking ‘MVP, win or lose’ conversation. It might be the best version of him we’ve ever seen under the brightest of lights. It would be difficult to imagine Curry and this Warriors team losing again, much less at home. Maybe this series will go seven, with each team winning their next home game. However, Golden State and the best shooter of all time won’t lose Game 5 and risk elimination in Boston.
Sure, the Celtics have won a game in San Francisco (Game 1) and they’ve emerged victorious in three of their past four road games (and an NBA-record seven road playoff games total). Sure, the Warriors just won a game in the Bean, but just can’t envision a scenario in which Boston marches into Golden State – having just been slayed in arguably the most raucous home atmosphere in pro hoops – and somehow flips the script to take yet another road upset.
For one, Boston’s stars haven’t aligned. Jayson Tatum went 8-of-23 in Game 4, including an abysmal 2-of-9 in the second half. He turned the ball over six times and seems well on his way to postseason infamy with the all-time playoff record in turnovers right in his blurry sights. Tatum’s field-goal percentage this NBA Finals: 34.1 percent. Curry’s points-per-game average this NBA Finals – 34.3 – remains higher than Tatum’s shooting percentage (hat tip, StatMuse).
If you want to play your parlay a bit more conservatively and sacrifice some payout for extra insurance, you could bet an alternate spread like Warriors +2.5 at -220. That way, you’re covered with a Golden State win or yet another Celtics road upset, as long as Boston doesn’t win by more than a bucket. That two-point insurance plan only knocks down our potential parlay payout by 76 bucks.
Correlates well with: Steph Curry OVER 5.5 Threes (+108), Curry as Top Points Scorer (-130)
Andrew Wiggins OVER 7.5 Rebounds (+114)
Now for the concept of working harder. The Warriors checked that box in Game 4, too. All said, Golden State outrebounded Boston 55-42, including 31-17 in the second half. The Warriors grabbed 16 offensive boards to the Celtics’ 11. Wiggins served as the main catalyst with 16 boards, Kevon Looney had 11, and Curry finished with 10. Wiggins had 11 in the second half – nobody in green and white even finished with more than five second-half rebounds.
The Celtics missed 30 shots in the second half and grabbed just seven offensive rebounds. Golden State missed 22 shots in that same span, and yet Boston grabbed just 10 defensive boards. The Warriors had as many second-half offensive boards as Boston had second-half defensive boards. What happened to imposing your size and will, coach Ime Udoka?
For a team that loves launching three-pointers in crunch time, the Celtics sure hate crashing the boards. Seemingly every time Curry launched, a Warrior was running toward the rim. The C’s were up 94-90 with 5:18 remaining, and they shot 1-of-8 from the field from that point on. Seven of those eight shots were three-point attempts, and only one went in. Only one Celtic recorded a rebound in that home stretch.
This Golden State team seems hungrier and more willing to put in the work late in games, and Wiggins has quietly been an x-factor. Expect him to continue outworking his opponents and racking up hustle stats. Getting plus odds here seems like a gift.
Correlates well with: Al Horford UNDER 8.5 Rebounds (-158)
Alternate Points: Draymond Green UNDER 8.5 Points (-186)
We’ve already discussed that the Warriors took better shots, made better plays, and crashed the boards in Game 4. Well, they also executed tough decisions that paid off. Golden State coach Steve Kerr started Otto Porter to start small and keep Kevon Looney’s legs fresh. As it turned out, that was only the beginning.
Kerr also took Draymond Green out for Looney for a crucial four-minute stretch in the fourth quarter, then subbed the veteran in for Jordan Poole for just defensive possessions in the final three minutes. It seemed obvious to fans and viewers, but clearly it was a much more difficult move for Kerr and that team to make than most fans realize. Decisive NBA Finals coaching decisions involve delicate ego-balancing.
Expect more of the same in Game 5. Green remains effective defensively, but a borderline-liability offensively. So far in the Finals, he has put up scoring totals of four, nine, two, and two (never a good sign when we must spell out every one of your points totals). Green has 18 personal fouls and just 17 total points in the series. He’s shooting 6-of-26 (23 percent) and has missed all nine of his three-point attempts. His coaches and teammates don’t have confidence in him, and at this rate, he doesn’t have confidence in himself. Smash the UNDER here.
Correlates well with: Kevon Looney OVER 5.5 Points (-166), Jordan Poole OVER 1.5 Threes (-142)
Player Assists: Jayson Tatum OVER 6.5 Assists (+122)
We’ve discussed in depth that Tatum has not looked like a superstar this NBA Finals. Hats off to Wiggins for playing superb defense on him and never letting him get fully comfortable. JT’s right shoulder might not be right or the lights might be too bright – no matter the reason, you have problems if your best player is putting up 23 points on 23 shots.
However, the Celtics don’t need 30 points on 16 shots from Tatum every night. In fact, Boston fares better when Tatum simply makes the right plays. He’s arguably the C’s best passer and certainly their best playmaker. In the seven 2022 NBA Playoff games in which he’s recorded at least seven assists, Boston is 7-0. That’s a lot of sevens for a team in dire need of some luck.
Tatum needs to answer an imperative question in his own head: What matters more: being an NBA champion or being an NBA Finals MVP? If winning truly matters above all else, he’ll stop forcing shots, driving into traffic, and dribbling out shot clocks into high-pressure situations.
Something tells me the All-NBA First Teamer will swallow his pride and pass the rock more often this evening, and there’s no way Boston duplicates its 40-percent shooting from Game 4. The Celtics might not win, but if Tatum makes his teammates better, they should at least make it a lot closer than the 107-97 outcome we saw on Friday.
Correlates well with: Player Combos: Jayson Tatum OVER 33.5 (-111)