Here’s how this works:
- On Wednesday morning, we will share our top prop bets and hand-picked wagers for the Pels and Dubs showdown. We’ll also update the odds and picks throughout the day.
- Once the game tips off, we’ll follow our picks, surface any noteworthy lines, AND detail the angles and opportunities we look for in the live betting market.
- At the end of the night, we will follow up on each bet — traditional and live — discussing which of our wagers hit and which missed and which major storylines or developments unfolded.
This is a great chance for you to uncover new strategies before and during NBA games, and see what kind of interesting moneyline, spread, and over/under developments take place throughout the course of the game. Our Prop-A-Shot bets have gone 29-21 through three weeks, good for a .580 winning percentage. Whether you’re thinking about dabbling in betting for the first time or you’re a seasoned bettor looking to sharpen your edge, we’ve got you covered!
Remember to check back throughout the day as well as during the game this evening for updates, live value betting opportunities, and all the betting results as the games conclude. Good luck, have fun, and may the odds be forever in your favor!All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
Warriors looking energized at start of second half
- 10:08 p.m.: As expected, the Pelicans are shooting the ball much worse than they did in the first half. At the halfway point of the third frame, the Warriors are trailing 86-75. Golden State will not give up on this game.
- 10:02 p.m.: Moses Moody is playing some fantastic basketball despite the Dubs losing 84-69. The third-year pro has 14 points and yet his scoring over/under is at 17.5 (see below). Smash the OVER right now!
- 10:00 p.m.: The Warriors are already looking much more energized, penetrating to the hoop and looking to exploit Jonas Valanciunas on the interior. The pace is frenetic, so we’re sticking to our guns with the live OVER (which is currently at 254.5). Kevon Looney has four fouls already, by the way, so we’re intrigued by the OVER on Jonathan Kuminga’s rebounds (3.5 at -140). Kuminga plays hard and Kerr will rely on his strength, athleticism, and fire to get the Dubs back into this game.
Warriors trail big at halftime: Take Golden State and the points for value
- 9:52 p.m.: The lowest live OVER we can get for the total: 249.5 (-140). We’re interested. While the general consensus will be that Golden State battles its way back in this game with defense, we expect offense to be the most important factor in the comeback. Taking care of the ball and shooting well will be paramount for Steph Curry and company — that’s what got them to trim their deficit from 25 to 13.
- 9:45 p.m.: An interesting live game prop that caught our eye: we can get New Orleans to win by 6-10 points at +360. Since we like the Warriors to battle back but probably not completely pull off the comeback in this one, that could be a fun option rather than simply just betting the Pels -10.5 or backing their value-ridden -700 moneyline. We’re also bullish on the scoring OVER for Brandon Ingram (16.5 at -140), as he will be the midrange scorer that New Orleans relies on to withstand Steph Curry runs in the second half.
- 9:41 p.m.: Golden State already turned things around a little in the final two minutes of the first half. The Dubs took a 20-point deficit and trimmed it to 13, making it a much more manageable 73-60 at intermission. It’s still deeply troubling that the Pels were able to shoot 13-of-26 from long-range — and we hate to see the former dynasty getting booed at the Chase Center — but we’re glad we got in while we could at Golden State +13.5. We would also consider betting Steph Curry’s live OVER of 26.5 points (-125), as he remains the lifeblood of this team.
- 9:30 p.m.: With just over 2:00 remaining in the first half, the Warriors trail 70-53. Golden State has struggled mightily, turning the ball over 10 times while forcing just five TOs, while New Orleans has somehow hit 13-of-20 three-pointers. This seems like a great opportunity to take the Warriors +13.5, as there’s no way Steph Curry and his squad just give up on this game completely and NOLA can’t shoot this well for 48 minutes.
Pregame prop recommendations
This is where we will list our props ahead of the game, and then keep track of our wins and losses during and after the contest. Once the game begins and we start live blogging, we will erase the write-ups for each player and game prop in an effort to trim down the overall content.
Steph Curry points
- Best bet: OVER 28.5 points (-115)
- Another good bet: Curry to score Warriors’ first field goal (+300)
The Warriors have very little time to mess around at this point. They’re 17-19, in the middle of a 5-5 stretch, and sitting in the 12th seed in the West with a miserable 11-15 conference record. It’s time for Steve Kerr’s squad to ride its two-time MVP before it falls out of contention completely.
Curry scored just nine points in Golden State’s 15-point loss to Toronto on Sunday. The Dubs got an extra day off since then — and the good news that Draymond Green will be back from suspension soon — so we expect a more prepared and more motivated Warriors team this evening.
And Curry should be firing early and often to get the taste out of his mouth from Sunday — the last time he scored single-digits this season, he came back the next night and dropped 33. One game after he was held to eight points in March 2022, he dropped 47. You can’t hold the shooting GOAT down for very long. Bet on a quick rebound for Steph, and bet on him scoring the Warriors’ first basket of the night.
Zion Williamson points
- Best bet: OVER 22.5 points (-105)
- Note: Zion was listed as a game-time decision with a quad contusion — he’s now confirmed active
Zion, who was iffy earlier in the day, is playing. We are pounding the OVER. He’s too strong for the Warriors’ perimeter defenders to contain, and he has evolved as more than just a power dunker this season.
Brandon Ingram points
- Best bet: OVER 20.5 (-110) (down 2 points since the Zion announcement)
- Another good bet: OVER 4.5 rebounds (-120)
Ingram has enjoyed good head-to-head stats against the Dubs over the past couple seasons, so we like his chances of showing out with or without Zion active. In five games against Golden State since 2020-21, the All-Star swingman has averaged 27 points per game. We like BI to get out of his mini-slump tonight, dropping 23-plus for the first time since New Year’s Eve.
Herbert Jones rebounds, steals
- Bet bet: OVER 4.5 rebounds (-140)
- Another good bet: OVER 1.5 steals (+165)
Herb Jones is an underrated defender and hustle player, so we like him to step up if Zion is inactive — or even if Zion plays but is banged up, limited, or on a minutes restriction. Golden State has been soft and sloppy without Draymond, so Herb should benefit on the glass and with takeaways.
CJ McCollum three-pointers
- Best bet: UNDER 3.5 three-pointers (-125)
McCollum only hit 2-of-8 three-pointers in New Orleans’ first game against the Dubs this season, and he’s 37-of-107 from long-distance in 15 games against Golden State dating back to 2017-18. That averages out to 2.4 three-pointers per game. With the Warriors holding opponents to the seventh-worst opposing three-point percentage in the NBA this season (35%), we’re fading McCollum tonight despite his hot shooting of late.
Steph Curry turnovers
- Best bet: UNDER 2.5 turnovers (+135)
The Warriors have made it a point to take better care of the basketball over the past few games, averaging 11.5 giveaways per game across four January contests after finishing each of the first three calendar months of the season with averages of at least 14.3 turnovers per game. The renewed focus obviously starts with Steph, who has turned the ball over just twice in three of the Warriors’ past four games. Bet on the trend to continue and enjoy the plus odds.
Some fun exotic props
- Jonas Valanciunas to make his first field goal attempt (-135)
- Warriors win race to 10 points (-115)
- Moneyline and both teams to score 100 points: Pelicans and yes (-110)
With Draymond Green still out and the Pels continuing to play strong basketball of late, we like the visitors to pull this one out and maybe even cover the -2.5 (although we probably won’t bet the spread or moneyline either way if Zion sits). The biggest advantage New Orleans enjoys over Golden State is down low, and we like Big V’s chances of hitting his first shot up close. We would feel confident betting the Warriors to win the race to 10, but we expect NOLA to lead when the final buzzer blows.
Good luck, check back throughout the day for updates, and see you at the 8:30 p.m. tip-off for live betting updates and recommendations throughout the game!
